Sign | Register
UDC 658.1-50
Mathematical Model for Choice Among Managerial Alternatives Using Situational Dynamics Foracasting at Industrial Enterprise
A.V. Zimin, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation,
This paper describes a profit optimization mathematical model used for managerial decision making in the short and medium terms. The work analyses the main problems arising before the management of an industrial organisation in conditions of global economic instability. The general model proposed for this type of problems is based on the economical factors evaluation with application of various methods of temporary ranks forecasting. In addition, this work justifies benefits of using this model in decision process at industrial organisation.
economical optimisation model, regression, forecasting, choice of managerial alternatives
1. Eliseeva I.I. Ekonometrika: uchebnik dlya bakalavrov [Econometrics: BSc Textbook]. Moscow, Prospekt Publ., 2013. 288 p.
2. Lukashin Yu.P. Adaptivnye metody kratkosrochnogo prognozirovaniya vremennykh ryadov: uchebnoe posobie [Adaptive Methods of Short Term Time Series Forecasting: Study Guide]. Moscow, Finances and Statistics Publ., 2003. 416 p.
3. Magnus Ya.R., Katyshev P.K., Peresetskiy A.A. Ekonometrika. Nachalnyy kurs: 6-e izdanie [Econometrics. Introductory Course: 6th Edition]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2004. 576 p.
4. Tikhonov E.E. Metody prognozirovaniya v usloviyakh rynka: uchebnoe posobie [Markets and Forecasting Methods: Study Guide]. Nevinnomyysk, North Caucasus State Technical University, 2006. 221 p.
5. Chernorutskiy I.G. Metody optimizatsii v teorii upravleniya [Methods for Optimisation in Control Theory]. St. Petersburg, Piter Publ., 2004. 104 p.
6. Doz Y.L., Kosonen M. Fast Strategy: How Strategic Agility Will Help You Stay Ahead of the Game. London, Wharton School Publishing, 2009. 120 p.
7. French S., Papamichail N. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2009. 657 p.
8. Sharp J.M., Irani Z. Desai S. Working Towards Agile Manufacturing in the UK Industry. International Journal of Production Economics, 1999, vol. 62, no. 5, pp. 155–169.
9. Xu L., Yang J. Introduction to Multi-Criteria Decision Making and the Evidential Reasoning Approach. Manchester, Manchester School of Management, 2001. 324 p.
10. Zhang P. The Impact of Information Visualization on Human Problem-Solving Performance in a Complex Business Domain. Proceedings of the Second Americas Conference on Information Systems (AIS'96), Phoenix,1996, August 16–18, pp. 674–676.
11. Winters P.R. Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 2006, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 75–86.
Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control, Radio Electronics, 2015, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 26-31. (in Russ.) (The main)